MANILA, Philippines (The Adobo Chronicles, Manila Bureau) – Former NoyNoy Aquino Spokesperson Edwin Lacierda is vying for the title of the “Nate Silver of the Philippines.”
Silver is an American statistician and writer. He is the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and many Americans look to his predictions and calculations when it comes to baseball and politics, especially elections.
Now, Lacierda wants to follow in Silver’s footsteps.
In a Tweet, proudly retweeted by blogger Raïssa Robles, Lacierda came up with some seemingly genius calculation of what it would take for a 2019 Senatorial candidate to make it to the 12th spot in the Magic 12.
This is what Lacierda posted on his Twitter account:
Sounds genius, doesn’t it?
Well, we gathered The Adobo Chronicles’ panel of mathematical experts to analyze Lacierda’s analysis. The verdict: Lacierda’s math is glaringly flawed, just like Leni Robredo’s.
Our experts said that a Senatorial candidate does not have to get 14 Million or 31.44% of the votes to reach 12th spot.
Voters can choose up to 12 candidates in their Senatorial ballots. Winners are determined by plurality.
In order for a candidate to reach 12th spot, he or she just needs to get the highest number of votes next to the person in the 11th spot.
So, if the candidate in the 11th spot garnered, say, exactly 10 Million votes, and the next two highest vote getters received 10.2 Million and 10.1 Million, respectively, then the 12th spot goes to the candidate with 10.2 Million. Simple.
So, Mr. Lacierda, we’re sorry to say, you’re no Nate Silver!